Mountain Forests for Production and Protection 2002
-
a Socrates graduate "Intensive course" in Austria (Version 2002-06-24
by Peter Lohmander)
This web
page includes the latest version of the suggested and planned activities
including Swedish participation. There are three red headlines, 1. 2. and 3.
See below.
1. General information concerning the course:
Brief presentation:
This
web page gives a brief presentation of the SOCRATES graduate intensive course
with emphasis on the area: Economic Forest Management under Risk.
Complete program:
The
complete program is available from this course web page:
http://www.boku.ac.at/zib/IP2002/
Preparatory reading
material:
Web
documents (covering most areas of the course) to read before the course starts:
http://www.boku.ac.at/zib/ipparticipants.htm
2. Information concerning lectures from Sweden:
Lectures from Sweden:
Lectures on Economic Forest Management and Risk
by
Prof. Dr. Peter LOHMANDER, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Faculty
of Forestry, Umea, Sweden. www.Lohmander.com
Time and practical
details: The
lectures are planned to take three full hours. It may be optimal for the total
schedule to give two hours in a lecture room where there is a large whiteboard
and an OH projector. One hour of the lectures can be given in the bus if there
is a really good microphone and loudspeaker system in the bus. Discussions in
the field during later excursions and events serve as a necessary complement. It
is very valuable if the students have access to the internet during the
evenings of the course. Then, it is possible to use the internet software which
is connected to the lectures (found below). The computers and browser settings
should allow the use of java applets. (In 2001, this was not possible in the
house used during the course.)
Contents of the
lectures from Sweden: General principles of optimal economic forest management decisions.
Discussion of the area "risk and uncertainty" and how optimal
decisions should be determined in situations where risk and uncertainty are present. In forestry, as one
example, particularly in mountain areas, stochastic damages (windthrows, pests,
insects, climatic changes etc) are typical and important concerns. Furthermore,
most markets contain risk. No person knows future prices and costs with certainty. Technological
development may create new options and markets for some products. During the course of 2001, the
following "risk - optimization model" was developed ( which you may
use via the INTERNET): ASPRock1 - Forests for production and protection (from rocks in steep
terrain!) Press
here in order to run the software, to see the rocks coming down the forest
slopes and to read the background to the optimization:
http://www.lohmander.com/Program/ASPRock1/InASPRock1.html
and
http://www.lohmander.com/Program/ASPRock1/RockT1.html
References to the
lectures:
http://www.lohmander.com/Information/Ref.htm
Risk in forestry and
internet software for optimal solutions:
http://www.lohmander.com/Program/Program.htm
Risk in forestry:
Some internet resources:
http://www.sekon.slu.se/~plo/ERM/iffi949.htm
http://www.sekon.slu.se/~plo/heureka/HeuriskStr1.html
http://www.sekon.slu.se/~plo/heureka/hgraphs/RiskInt1.html
Questions to consider
after the lectures:
Describe the
classical harvest year problem in forestry. How is the optimal harvest year
affected by the capital market, other economic conditions and the present stock
level?
Describe the forest
investment problem. How is the optimal selection of species and investment
intensity affected by the capital market and other economic conditions?
Describe the
"continuous cover" forestry problem. How is the optimal stock level
affected by the capital market and other economic conditions?
Describe the decision
problem in "ASPRock1 - Forests for production and protection (from rocks
in steep terrain!)". How are the optimal decisions
affected by the expected number of released rocks, the value of the protected
property and the rate of interest in the capital market? Which other conditions
are necessary to know if we want to determine how we should manage the forest
stands?
In many cases,
stochastic dynamic programming is a relevant method. Describe some typical
planning situation when stochastic dynamic programming is one of the only
relevant tools! Describe in which ways other methods would lead to irrelevant
results.
Describe the planning
problem and a typical optimal solution to stochastic pulse harvesting with
economies of scale!
Describe the planning
problem and a typical optimal solution to stochastic "continuous"
harvesting with economies of scale!
Describe the planning
problem and a typical optimal solution to optimal harvesting in the presence of
stochastic winds!
3. Information concerning a joint event (Kleemayr and Lohmander) during
the second week:
(This
event is under present discussion by Karl Kleemayr and Peter Lohmander)
Read the
latest e-mail below!
From
: "Peter Lohmander" <plohmander@hotmail.com>
To
: klee@edv1.boku.ac.at, plohmander@hotmail.com
Subject
: Sokrates - Mountain Analysis Excercise Discussion!
Date
: Mon, 10 Jun 2002 15:14:20 +0200
Hello
again Karl:
Very
good!
I have
now taken away all other events from my calender from Monday September 2 to
Saturday September 7. I marked, in particular, Thursday September 5, for our
new special excercise. I am convinced that this will become an interesting part
of the program!
I
suggest that we define rather complex problems for the students and try to
integrate most of the things which have been covered earlier. In order to solve
the problems, they simply need some knowledge of the earlier treated topics and
they will need to know something about how to use the presented methodological
approaches.
My
suggestion (right now) is that we select a spatially defined area in the Alps
(which we visit). In that area, you have forestry, roads, communities, tourism,
land slides, rockfall, avalanches etc.. One type of mission (for the students)
could be to try do determine how to manage the area. One could consider that
question under different assumptions.
1.
According to the first problem version, we only care about protection (of
communities, roads etc.). The objective is to get the best possible protection
for alternative levels of total protection cost.
2. An
other version could be that we look at forestry in isolation and optimize the
economics of forestry without considering anything else.
3. A
third version could be that we optimize the area only with respect to profits
from tourism.
4. One
version could be that there is one optimizing manager, who wants to optimize
the total economic surplus from the area. In that situation, profits from
forestry, tourism and everything else should be taken into account. The
interdependencies have to be handled in a rational way.
One
could split the students into different groups and give them one particular
topic each. All groups would have to address the general problems (1. - 4.) "What
should be done in the complete area i fwe consider different versions of the
problem (if we consider the problem from different perspectives)?". As a
complement, the groups could also get particular group missions.
As an
introduction to the excercise, I think that we should emphasize the links
between the different activities. How do different kinds of forest management
activities affect probabilities of land slides, rock fall, avalances etc..
How do
land slides, rock fall and avalances in turn affect forestry results?
How is
tourism (different kinds) affected by land slides, rock fall, avalances etc.and
by forest management activities of different kinds?
How is
tourism (of different kinds) possibly affecting land slides, rock fall,
avalances etc.and forestry results?
It is
probably necessary to collect and prepare some tables with statistics which can
be used during the excercise. I think that the Austrian official tables are
useful. The students need to find some figures concerning land use areas,
protection costs, roads, tourism etc.
(I
suggest that the results are presented by the students during the following
morning. That way, the students can cooperate during the day and evening and
prepare the presentation a bit more. I realize that this may cause problems in
the general schedule but that is my recommendation in any case. In 2001 we had
a rather general discussion in the end. I think that really well prepared
student presentations are the best way to start a very concrete final
discussion. Without sufficient time for the analysis made by the students (at
least one day and one evening) we run the risk that no qualified results can be
obtained and no conclusions can be drawn.)
I
really look forward to your opinions, suggestions and more schedule details!
This
will be very fun and developing for us all!
Best
regards,
Peter
www.Lohmander.com
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